Squaring vicious circles

Few would have expected to have been comparing the final months of Gerard Houllier’s reign with that of his successor when Rafa Benitez was appointed - now given last season’s achievement but possibly at any point of the Spaniard’s tenure.

The Reds were going backwards under Houllier while at the same time Benitez had taken Valencia - a side without much recent pedigree and who so often threatened to succeed but never quite managed it - to domestic and European glory.

The latter achieved despite the might of Barcelona albeit that the Catalan club were in a rebuilding phase after decline under Joan Gaspart’s presidency and Real Madrid were in their first ‘Galatico‘ era.

In the circumstances Benitez seemed tailored made for the Anfield job.

Manchester United were already cash laden courtesy of their soon to end 15 year status as a Plc while Chelsea had attracted the attentions of a 36 year old Russian oligarch. Estimated to be worth £5.5 billion he had pumped money into both club infrastructure but also over £200 million into the playing staff. Recouping less than 10% of that in sales.

Arsenal were also happy to spend big money on exceptional talents - far more than many tend to remember now Arsene Wenger has a reputation for being frugal with his transfer kitty. They also had a heavy investment in youth which was brought to North London from all corners of the globe at significant cost.

Though without a benevolent owner and run in the same “old fashioned way” Liverpool were also organised - a low number of high value shares in private hands - the Gunners had a new stadium not just on the drawing board or an architect’s computer screen but actively being put into bricks and mortar. Set to earn millions of pounds a year more than their Highbury home could.

Liverpool who had planning permission for a new home had little more than a bog standard design of a bowled stadium. Somewhat out of the box though one which needed funding and one the Anfield board needed to attract substantial investment to if they were to do so and appointed companies to assess likely suitors.

Arsenal would receive money from the sale of their old home but borrowed heavily against the revenue a 60,000 stadium would generate but the £470 million cost was not easily garnered with tools going down soon after very early work commenced. A consortium of banks provided just more than half the means.

The remainder came through sponsorship, exclusive contractual agreements and lending through the bond market - which would take 25 years to repay. Instalments would be due at prescribed times. In return for this backing lenders received equity in the project.

Essentially placing the club in debt for hundreds of millions of pounds for more than a generation.

Then Liverpool chairman David Moores was open to selling his holding in order to ensure investment of the type he nor the club through its turnover just couldn’t foot.

However, apart from what often seemed nothing more than publicity stunts, politicians who had an eye on a general election in a country besotted with English football particularly Liverpool FC and would source the purchase price through other people’s money little seemed to move.

A fully underwritten £73 million cash bid from another board member was on the table but deemed derisory.
There was for whatever reason hope of billionaires not just plain millionaires riding in. Bottom pits of funding. Outside of financial circles and the world of venture capitalism few had considered or even heard the term leveraged buy out.

Over the five and a half years Rafael Benitez at been at Liverpool’s helm the game and other clubs including those who already had the jump on Liverpool has moved forward.

Some at an rapid pace due to the interest of not just industrialists but sovereign wealth funds.

At that same stage Gerard Houllier was placing his pot plants into a box and heading to Lyon Sheik Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan had possibly never heard of Manchester City. Dish-dashes had yet to enter the consciousness of those at Eastlands as a match day accessory.

Abu Dhabi’s hydrocarbon wealth makes the emirate and its ruling family one of the richest in the Middle East. Somewhere in the region of £500 million of that affluence has been ploughed into playing staff and £304.9 million converted from shareholder loan to equity.

The purchase of a further £89.6 million means City’s on paper debt is far too minimal to cause Michel Platini any worries about debt levels.

Just as it was in 2004 Liverpool are spluttering and the fans seem split about the man in charge, though not perhaps 50/50, between those who support the manager. Though they possibly look at the players when analysing reasons for the malaise want to get behind each and every man in a red shirt even the ones who could at best be described as below par.

Typically those of that persuasion will lay blame away from the coaches and though they may point a finger towards the pitch there’s no desire to rock the boat or even cause further problems by doing anything other than backing the team to the hilt.

There has been a tide against Rafa for longer than the past few months and those who had already turned against him prior to this current season may criticise the players for under-achieving but place most ills squarely at coach’s door.

This category also tend to not only shout louder but also ring the phone-ins and other fans forums - not all solely Liverpool Football Club related. Events in the FA Cup give them that extra oxygen as producers and editors scrabble to put them on air.

Those who are still behind the manager suffer but do so silently ignoring the various interactions available to them. So for some, the laziest in the media included, the dissenters appear to be the majority. However, even though their ranks have swelled in recent weeks anecdotal evidence still suggests they are not.

While debate focuses on the ownership, funding and future direction of the club events on the pitch can often seem secondary but with the club’s financial situation sorted in the short term, albeit via the equivalent of an elastoplast that are refinanced loans with huge demands for capital payment when renewed, attention inevitably moves from Gillett and Hicks to a man who has tended to feature in many off field dramas as well as the on field disappointments - Rafael Benitez.

For all the abusive e-mails, assurances about the manager’s tenure and possibility of further investment reports cannot go beyond quotes from sources close to proposed deals but the prodigious generation of column inches about the club can continue as the team struggles to claim points or progress in other arenas.

There is no shortage of opinion from writers, pundits and those who have previously served the club which means the manager especially can be kept in the crosshairs while pot shots of mud are aimed in his direction.

One of those courtesy of Charlie Nicholas on Sky’s Soccer Saturday who suggested to his colleague Phil Thompson that the side he presided over alongside Gerard Houllier was better than the one now assembled.

It makes comparisons that will keep coming inevitable.

On the surface appraisals of the Houllier and Benitez periods are fair. Take the team’s set up.

Despite attempts to introduce it there is little true width in the side and for some strange reason little movement plus less creativity despite a team brimming with ability in that department.

There are similarities other than what is said to be a one dimensional style. Results and form are as poor as the final knockings under the Frenchman. Confidence is at rock bottom and players who are much better than they look can sometimes barely keep possession at stages of the game. When it is retained even comfortably often they struggle to do much with it.

Some signings who promised much have failed to blossom.

However, under Houllier the players drafted in got progressively worse and never looked like improving. There was so little coming through the reserve ranks who with the exception of finishing top in 2000 trundled along in the Premiership Reserves North.

If that wasn’t bleak enough the playing style was not so much careful as bubble wrapped in fear.

When an advantage was found it would be nursed and the shop closed. There was an over-dependence on long balls to exploit Michael Owen’s pace but not a lot else. The Reds simply could go no further under his guidance.

The team reflected the manager perfectly who suffered from something bordering on paranoia during the final months of his stewardship. Be that people linked with his job and all manner of opinion being submitted from an important constituent of the Liverpool family ex-players.

Links with other managers are being made and courted by journalists who realise that no one touted as a successor will rule themselves out.

Despite of the paltry funds which would be at their disposal and bickering above their heads being mentioned in the same breath as the Anfield hotseat does their career prospects no harm at all.

For Martin O’Neill now read Jurgen Klinsmann and if some reports are to be believed Martin O’Neill again. Guus Hiddink and Jose Mourinho are also mentioned but the current Russia and Inter Milan managers are - well - nothing more than wild Guus chases. The former earns over £6 million in his current role and a further well remunerated role with Chelsea as a technical directory. No bad return for a 63 year old.

Mourinho may have enjoyed seeing his favourite emergency striker Robert Huth grab a late equaliser against the Reds but will not, according to sources close to the Portuguese, join any club in a state of financial volatility. Nor will he join one which stable or not has no money to fund his inevitably expensive tastes.

Unlike Benitez Houllier allowed it all to creep under his skin.

Does everything but reaction to those critiques from old boys ring true today?

A striking contrast its that Gerard Houllier’s sides were roughly playing to their level. The current side is not as good as it could be and capable of so much better.

Regardless of who left during the summer it should certainly have pretensions of a title challenge after the last campaign. Even if efforts are to be in vain that chance of claiming the trophy has to be on well into the spring.

The worst factor of the current situation is that players who are far better than their current showings and world class performers are retreating within themselves because they seem too scared to make an error.

It could even be ventured that they have no faith in the manager - but that is purely speculative as are claims that either the whole or certain portions of the dressing room have to coin that oft quoted phrase been lost. Reading between the lines suggestions revolve around the non-Spanish or those for whom Spanish is not the first language.

Frankly many performances including the one at the Britannia Stadium on Saturday belie the claim.

Rafa has a very different relationship with his players than most managers. In essence he may never have had the dressing room - just the respect rather than admiration of many members of his squad for his achievements. Steven Gerrard has openly spoke about the situation and that distance is purposeful.

He is perhaps as every manager should be not a friend but a man in charge who may have to drop them or let them know that their time at Anfield has come to an end. He rarely singles any specific individual for praise preferring to talk about the team as a whole and pour over what could have gone better. Even when he should be basking in victory.

Some whose names need not be repeated now are living on borrowed time, past reputation or could simply do with a change of scene. This includes those who have been acquired by Benitez for sizeable fees but there are buys Rafa has made who may not form the core of club but do show potential and have every chance of a successful career in L4. As for the quality of signings. They have certainly improved as time has gone on but regardless of the source of funds being borrowings the money available has increased.

The Reading result has seen many of those who considered themselves somewhere in the middle of the debate jump to one side but it’s only the knee-jerk reaction to the result rather than the manager’s tactics and decisions.

A positive result against Stoke would not have sated their ire but no blame can be heaped on Rafa or the players not putting the Potters away.

The simple fact is that a strong team not one that could be considered in any way weakened below an unacceptable point took to the field. They were set up correctly for the task of defending the inevitable bombardment as well as holding and attacking. If they had not more time would have been spent within a narrow midfield corridor.

Of course with one exception - goals scored - statistics do not decide games. Unfortunately Gerard Houllier based his after match press conferences around them when under pressure. They were straws he would clutch at but all too often they were the irrelevant ones.

Rafa has always tended to take a different tack analysing the play and whether his team held control of matters. The Opta sheets are rarely grasped.

These things happen to every club which has ever taken to a football field be that in a knock-out tournament or league and at any level.

Liverpool are creating opportunities in most games played and evidence gathered from eyes alone demonstrates that Rafa’s sides while often careful produce a better brand of football now than most sides have since he took charge.

Almost every analysis proves that the majority of opponents are heavily beaten in key areas but it’s the inability to put the chances this creates away which is costing dear.

However, there is no escaping that at times some unconfident and lifeless football is being played and though a plan B is surely suggested like so many teams when the A game is frustrated Liverpool can play under a huge amount of fear and look to pick off chances where they can rather than rip at the jugular.

The manager’s style is essentially cautious but only in the respect that regardless of the phase of play he would prefer to have his team acting as one. If the opposition has the ball everyone in their own way will defend - from front to back. If the ball is forward the team should line up in support ready to win the second and third balls if the first is lost.

Last season when confidence was high this produced the type of performances witnessed against Derby County, Newcastle United, Manchester United, Real Madrid and others. This term the displays against Hull City, Manchester United again and Everton have been exceptions rather than something approaching the rule.

All too often in recent times this had only led to the creation pretty patterns of play and slick movement until the vital point when someone is expected to pull the trigger. When that killer touch or cutting edge is missing. In many games it has all looked so fruitless.

For a number of weeks when a goal has been scored the Reds have done everything but add to it - be that before or after the net is found. At one stage that would have been enough to achieve the minimum required for a win but the normally solid backline has had its wobbles and that unusual vulnerability has cost dear.

Liverpool have often had more than enough chances to win handsomely but a failure to exploit them has yielded many of the 28 points so far dropped.

With those in the bank the Reds would still not be muscling for pole position but in a league no other team seems keen to win would have a chance. They would certainly be as handily placed as any of the other challengers.

However, there are clearly problems at the club and within the dressing room.

As previously stated the exact cause remains a matter of conjecture - often depending where you stand on the manager’s future - but if players do not seem bothered and enjoy a joke immediately after a poor result, no longer believe in the manager or his methods well that will only usually end one way - a new man taking over.

That is part of the situation which did for Houllier

Claims that the current ownership situation and the fact that the fans have marshalled against the rule of Gillett and Hicks also has its comparison. The rows, emails and sidling up to Klinsmann were thought to have made Rafa fire proof. In the same way that Houllier’s heart surgery in late 2001 and then subsequent return five months later on the night a 2-0 win over Roma secured progress to the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the first time. But that highly charged evening along with the treble cup win the previous season proved to be the pinnacle of his six year stay as despite going a dozen games without defeat from the start of the next season that was followed by a sequence of 11 more league matches during which a win could not be bought. The situation went down hill from there on in.

A worry is that if Rafa is dismissed then Liverpool fall back and set the same standards which saw Manchester United spiral away for years until a decade or so down the line somebody suggested they should show a little patience in the man charged with guiding the club. Just as they did at Everton who despite dipping after the high of Champions League qualification showed a little restraint in keeping David Moyes even when league form faltered and their European adventure ended in humiliation.

Whether he lifts the only piece of silverware now available or fails to qualify for the Champions League it’s not the end for Rafa but these days could certainly mark its beginnings if things don’t start to look up.
That was certainly the case for Houllier who didn’t have the boardroom unrest or fans drawing battle lines over the club’s soul to contend with only a focus that included on field matters.

Rafa quite rightly can point to his exploits in Europe which rivals every Liverpool manager but Bob Paisley and Joe Fagan who reached three and two European Cup finals respectively and in successive seasons. Two in three years and one win represents a better record than any current manager other than Carlo Ancelotti.

Considering no side has ever defended the trophy in the Champions League era it’s more than just the knock-out cup often portrayed and at the business end Europe’s elite are usually waiting. Each trying to land a knock-out blow on their fellow behemoths.

Reaching the final two years out of three is not the same as guiding your charges to a similar number of League Cups in as many terms.

Has Rafa taken the club as far as he can? Almost certainly not rather than probably not. Nor has he created the same type of side he had at Valencia. Though he has tried due to financial constraints and the time to hand in which matters need to be melded together the job is still in hand.

He deserves more time as well as an adequate amount of financial backing but seems likely to be left short on at least one if not both of these commodities.

At stages it has seemed things were progressing well but now the side is struggling for confidence as well as results. It makes a review of his position inevitable regardless of who owns the club and whether the fans become as vocal in opposition as they are and have been in his defence. That will only happen come May rather than on Monday or even Thursday morning.

However, hands are tied when an overwhelming debt generated by owners who sought to milk a cash cow they never believed would fail to produce the cream. At least until a global downturn stunted the borrowing and loan markets they had previously exploited to great effect.

That economic climate means those same owners who have remained unable to move the club or its plans forward virtually since the day they have arrived need to see the comparatively little commercial revenue, substantial broadcast rights money and cash from player sales service the interest they have placed squarely on the clubs shoulders.

It should be added that significant sums of money have been raised from players who, like the club in general, Rafael Benitez has more often than not made better than when they arrived.

Until these particularly thorny issues can be ironed out some rather vicious circles cannot be squared and Liverpool will be left continually hoping that someone can help them punch above their collective weight.